Tinkering with housing market could be dangerous to economy

Andy Schildhorn • July 28, 2015

Limiting foreign investment would hurt sales and cost jobs:  BY GORDON HOEKSTRA, VANCOUVER SUN JULY 25, 2015 The B.C. premier doesn’t want to tamper with real estate since it’s so vital to the economy. It is it really? When Premier Christy Clark threw cold water on Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson’s call for measures targeting foreign […] The post Tinkering with housing market could be dangerous to economy appeared first on Andy Schildhorn, PREC.

Limiting foreign investment would hurt sales and cost jobs:

  BY GORDON HOEKSTRA, VANCOUVER SUN JULY 25, 2015
The B.C. premier doesn’t want to tamper with real estate since it’s so vital to the economy. It is it really?

When Premier Christy Clark threw cold water on Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson’s call for measures targeting foreign homebuyers to cool the housing market — steps that have been taken in Australia, the U.K. and Singapore — she said such interference would have little effect on housing prices.

More importantly, it had the potential to harm the economy, according to the premier.

If the province drastically reduced foreign investment, it would have little impact on general housing prices, but would cause the loss of about $1 billion in residential real estate sales and 3,800 jobs in construction and real estate sectors.

It would also knock $350 million in nominal gross domestic product out of the economy, noted a B.C. Ministry of Finance analysis meant to back up Clark’s response.

If government action caused a 10 per cent fall in house prices, roughly $60 billion in home equity would be lost in the province, which would work out to about $85,000 for a homeowner in Metro Vancouver.

The analysis was based on using government policy to drive down a hypothetical foreign investment rate of five per cent to just one per cent of the total $27 billion in Greater Vancouver home sales in 2014.

Although there is no solid, clean data on foreign money, five per cent is considered the upper level of foreign investment by provincial estimates based on information provided by the real estate industry.

The province used an economic model from B.C. Statistics to estimate the impact on jobs and gross domestic product (GDP), a widely used measure of economic activity.

It is clear that the provincial government wants to be careful about tampering with the real estate and property development sector as it believes it is an important driver of the economy.

So, how important is this sector that is under so much scrutiny?

According to Statistics Canada data from 2011 provided to The Vancouver Sun, the latest numbers that are available for a detailed sector-by-sector break down, real estate agents, brokers and related activities generated $1.93 billion in GDP in B.C.

That is a contribution of just under one per cent of the province’s total GDP in 2011, and equivalent to the contribution by computer design and related services, truck transportation and legal services.

The real estate sector’s contribution was the same in 2009 and 2010. A report by the Real Estate Association of B.C. using 2007 data also found that the real estate sector contributed about one per cent to the province’s GDP.

The report on economic impacts also found that for every 100 house sales, $2 million in GDP was generated and the equivalent of 28 jobs were created. That year, the 102,000 home sales in the province on the multiple listings service (MLS) accounted for the equivalent of 28,000 jobs created.

The report noted that whenever homes are bought and sold, lawyers, appraisers, realtors, surveyors and other professionals collect fees. Governments also collect significant taxes, and many homebuyers renovate their homes to suit their lifestyles.

As well as the commissions and fees that have to be paid out, realtors must provide supplies and services to their offices where technology is increasingly important, said Dan Morrison, a realtor for 25 years and president-elect of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

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