B.C. housing sales, prices expected to decline in 2023: BCREA forecast
Cheryl Chan - Vancouver Sun • February 16, 2023
But any dip in prices won’t last long, with a strong rebound predicted for 2024.
B.C.’s once high-flying housing market is expected to continue its decline this year, driving prices across the province down, the British Columbia Real Estate Association says.
In a forecast released Monday, the association said home sales have dropped through last spring and summer and are trending close to 25 per cent below normal.
Sales in 2023 are expected to be down seven per cent — from nearly 81,000 units in 2022 to just over 75,000 — as households adjust to a slowing economy and struggle with higher mortgage rates.
But sales will surge to about 93,000 in 2024, a nearly 24 per cent increase, the BCREA forecast.
“A slowing economy and still elevated mortgage rates are expected to keep housing activity lower than normal through much of 2023,” said chief economist Brendon Ogmundson in a new release.
“However, we expect a strong recovery, boosted by an expected decline in mortgage rates and record high immigration that will carry significant momentum into 2024.”
Sales in 2023 are expected to be down seven per cent — from nearly 81,000 units in 2022 to just over 75,000 — as households adjust to a slowing economy and struggle with higher mortgage rates.
But sales will surge to about 93,000 in 2024, a nearly 24 per cent increase, the BCREA forecast.
“A slowing economy and still elevated mortgage rates are expected to keep housing activity lower than normal through much of 2023,” said chief economist Brendon Ogmundson in a new release.
“However, we expect a strong recovery, boosted by an expected decline in mortgage rates and record high immigration that will carry significant momentum into 2024.”
The sales slump is forecast to be be most dramatic in Chilliwack, where home sales are expected to drop 14.7 per cent; the Fraser Valley, 11 per cent; and the Okanagan, 10.6 per cent. More modest decreases are expected in Victoria, at 3.1 per cent, and Greater Vancouver, at 4.3 per cent.
The shift in market conditions has led to falling prices despite few properties being for sale. Average prices on MLS will be relatively flat this year, the report said.
Home prices in Chilliwack are expected to tumble nearly 14 per cent to $700,000, while Fraser Valley residential prices are expected to fall 13 per cent to $955,000.
In Greater Vancouver, residential prices will decrease by 7.2 per cent in 2023, the report forecast, going from an average price of $1.27 million to $1.18 million, while Victoria property prices are forecast to decline 5.7 per cent from just above a million to $955,000.
The shift in market conditions has led to falling prices despite few properties being for sale. Average prices on MLS will be relatively flat this year, the report said.
Home prices in Chilliwack are expected to tumble nearly 14 per cent to $700,000, while Fraser Valley residential prices are expected to fall 13 per cent to $955,000.
In Greater Vancouver, residential prices will decrease by 7.2 per cent in 2023, the report forecast, going from an average price of $1.27 million to $1.18 million, while Victoria property prices are forecast to decline 5.7 per cent from just above a million to $955,000.
π‘ Fraser Valley home prices back to pandemic-era levels under the weight of economic headwinds and sustained inventory π SURREY, BC – Home prices in the Fraser Valley fell for the tenth consecutive month in January, pushing the Benchmark price below $900,000 for the first time since spring 2021. The Benchmark price for a typical home in the Fraser Valley dropped one per cent in January to $897,200, down 6.9 per cent year-over-year. The continued softening of prices wasn’t enough to get buyers off the sidelines, as the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board recorded 619 sales on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in January, a 33 per cent decrease from December, and 24 per cent below sales from the same month last year. New listings increased 128 per cent in January to 3,078, reflecting the typical seasonal patterns; however, activity remained 10 per cent below last year’s levels.
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