☀️ Summer Pulse Check & 🍂 Fall Outlook: What’s Happening in Canadian Real Estate?
While there were early signs of renewed momentum in June following the Bank of Canada’s first interest rate cut since 2020, activity in Canada’s housing market took a pause in July, according to data released earlier this month by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
“With another rate cut announced on July 24, we’ve now seen two rate cuts in a row, and the expected pace of future policy easing has steepened considerably, with markets now anticipating rate cuts at every remaining Bank of Canada decision this year,” Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, says in a statement.
“Combine that with a record amount of demand waiting in the wings, and the forecast for a rekindling of Canadian housing activity going into 2025 has just gone from a layup to a slam dunk.”
According to CREA, in July:
- National home sales decreased 0.7 per cent month-over-month
- Actual monthly activity was 4.8 per cent above July 2023
- Number of newly listed properties was up 0.9 per cent month-over-month
- MLS Home Price Index was up 0.2 per cent month-over-month but was down 3.9 per cent year-over-year (benchmark price was $718,700)
- Actual national average sale price ($667,317) was down just 0.2 per cent year-over-year
Uptick in market interest since interest rate cuts
Phil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage, says there has been a material uptick in market interest since the Bank of Canada started cutting interest rates.
“Our principal portal which is royallepage.ca is the busiest real estate company portal in the country. Not as busy as realtor.ca … Every week I get an update from our IT team on royallepage.ca and we’ve seen a material uptick in viewership and engagement in our planning tools.”
Soper notes that a leading indicator is the increasing number of people using the site is unusual for August: “August is typically a very slow month. Things pick up at the end of August and into September. It’s indicative of re-ignited interest.”
He says the final leading indicator is the brand’s showings system, which clients use to book property showings with their realtors: “We saw an uptick in that in July. There’s clearly more interest and I believe it’s related to three principal things.
One, variable rate mortgages are cheaper given that the bank rate has come down. Two, fixed-rate mortgages are cheaper given the state of the bond market and the slowing economy — we’ve seen a real material drop in the popular five-year fixed. The third is building demand. We had this very large influx of new Canadians in 2022 (and) 2023 — a record. That’s going to put pressure on the entire housing ecosystem.”
Soper says demand is building and it will be released at some time. There will be an uptick in sales volume triggered by cheaper borrowing and pent-up demand should result in a busy fall.
He believes those most impacted by higher interest rates, the overall lack of consumer confidence in the economy and the housing market in general are predominantly renters or first-time homebuyers. “That’s a big piece of the puzzle.”
Alberta, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick strong while Ontario struggles
Listings are going up because existing homeowners are seeing some positive indicators. However, Christopher Alexander, president of Re/Max Canada, says province by province is a different story.
“The year started off with a bang. Lots of anticipation that the Bank of Canada was going to start a series of rate cuts in the spring. That never materialized so you had this kind of malaise and slowness for several months, and then a strong majority of economists were insisting there would be rate cuts in June, so the market almost stopped in May. Then we got the rate cut and it really did nothing, but after the second rate cut we’re seeing renewed activity,” he notes.
“Alberta has been strong. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia have been pretty strong. Ontario has really struggled with slower market conditions.”
Alexander expects the market will see a renewed sense of urgency from buyers.
“We’ve got a lot of inventory, so that should keep prices in check for the foreseeable future. We’re expecting more rate cuts and I think once the overnight rate gets to around four per cent, we’ll see sustained activity. All the indicators are showing we’re entering healthy territory again which is a good thing,” he says.
‘End of the slump in most of Canada by end of this year’ but deeper rate cuts needed
Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist with RBC Economics, described the Canadian real estate market as slow, generally speaking, with obviously some variances across the country. Prices are mostly flat and some condominium prices are under pressure.
“We’ll need more interest rate cuts to get the market going,” he notes. “It’s a fairly slow grind this summer but it remains our view that as we get more rate cuts it’s going to translate more into lower mortgage rates, and that should get the market going a little faster.
We’re not expecting a big boom or anything like that but it will be the end of the slump in most of Canada by the end of this year.”
Hogue says the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts in June and July likely marked a turning point for struggling housing markets across the country, but so far the impact has been mixed. He says it will take deeper rate cuts to meaningfully reduce ownership costs and stimulate homebuyer demand more broadly.
“Supply, on the other hand, continues to grow. In some cases, such as in Toronto, it reflects the completion of many newly built units (mainly condominiums) that owners (mainly investors) are looking to offload. In other cases, it could be sellers betting lower rates will spur buyer interest and improve sale outcomes. In some, it may be a sign of homeowner distress arising from high rates,” notes Hogue.
He goes on to say that the balance between supply and demand varies considerably from market to market. “Conditions in Calgary, Edmonton and, to a lesser extent, Montreal favour sellers. It’s the opposite in the Toronto area where buyers have the upper hand — albeit just barely. A tenuous equilibrium holds in Vancouver.”
However, Hogue also points out that home prices have generally levelled off since spring. “Calgary — Canada’s housing hotspot — remains an exception, though gains have moderated recently. We see flat price trends persisting until larger rate cuts heat up demand more materially.”
Total listings up nearly 23%, sales-to-new listings below long-term average but balanced
According to CREA, at the end of July, there were about 183,450 properties listed for sale across Canada, up 22.7 per cent from the prior year but still about 10 per cent below historical averages (more than 200,000 for this time of the year). New listings were up slightly by 0.9 per cent month-over-month.
The national sales-to-new listings ratio went down 0.8 per cent from June to 52.7 per cent last month. CREA notes the long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55 per cent, with a ratio between 45 per cent and 65 per cent generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.
